27th March 2015 at 12:00, Room: 4205
ESCP EUROPE, 79 avenue de la République 75011 Paris
Professor Söhnke M. Bartram, Warwick Business School
Will present the paper:
“Fundamental Analysis Works”
Abstract: Stock prices cannot be the outcome of a rational efficient market if fundamental analysis based on public information is profitable. Our approach to fundamental analysis estimates the intrinsic fair values of stocks from the most common quarterly balance sheet and income statement items that were last reported in Compustat. Taking the view of a statistician with little knowledge of the theory of finance, we show that the most basic form of fundamental analysis yields trades with risk-adjusted returns of up to 9% per year. The trading strategy relies on convergence of market prices to their fair values. The greatest rate of convergence occurs in the month after the mispricing signal and subsequently decays to zero over the subsequent 28 months. Profits from trading are present for both large and small firms in economically significant magnitudes.
Organizers: Prof. Gunther Capelle-Blancard (Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne, Labex Refi), Prof. Christophe Moussu (ESCP Europe, Labex Refi), Arthur Petit-Romec (ESCP Europe, Labex Refi)